The balloon launch conducted by the Shreveport National Weather Service earlier this evening was after the strong outflow boundary raced through at 40-50 mph. This boundary originated down toward I-10 from strong convection and even caused some light wind damage in the southern part of the ArkLaTex.

The skew-t/log-p plot from www.rap.ucar.edu shows the stabilizing influence of the boundary with a low level inversion. Another inversion shows up in the mid levels indicating the strong subsidence from the upper ridge. CAPE was low, so the rain chance was nil at launch time.

Forecast changes as the remnants of Hermines moves closer to the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Upper ridge breaks down and the low level moisture train increases (i.e. south wind fetch really pumps in the moisture). Upper level cooling and low level moisture help destabilize the atmosphere. Upper level energy from those remnants increases the vertical lift. Temperatures in the 80s-90s will help to bring a better rain chance to our area tomorrow. Most of the rain stays in Texas though. Drought ravaged north Louisiana may get very little rain. Hope that's not the case.

Have a good night.