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Storm Prediction Center adds new risk criteria - KTBS.com - Shreveport, LA News, Weather and Sports

Storm Prediction Center adds new risk criteria

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Severe Storm Forecast example from the Storm Prediction Center Severe Storm Forecast example from the Storm Prediction Center

As you've probably seen in my broadcasts over the years, I've shown the Storm Predictions Center's severe weather outlooks. These illustrated the risks of storms producing tornadoes, high winds and hail one to three days out. Risks went slight to high.

The slight category was for well organized but generally scattered severe storms. The likelihood was forecast at 15 to 30%.

Next up was the moderate risk which included a higher severe storm chance at 45%

And high topped the list for the possibility of extreme and widespread damage with a potential for numerous and strong tornadoes. Chances increased to 60%.

General thunderstorms were also predicted that weren't likely to misbehave. Their severe possibility was only 5%. Pulse type or isolated, short duration severe storms were not considered organized and left out of the risk predictions.

The new system for 2014 breaks up the general and slight categories into general for a 1% severe chance, marginal at 5%, slight for 15% and enhanced that goes for 30%. The moderate and high designations remain the same at 45 and 60% respectively.

The new, low end categories now include the short duration pulse type and isolated storms that can still cause damage.

The change came about from requests to include storms that weren't categorized as severe...

But still produced minor damage and hail. Also, there were times that severe weather on slight risk days ended up considerably worse.

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