Hurricane Predictions - KTBS.com - Shreveport, LA News, Weather and Sports

Hurricane Predictions

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SHREVEPORT, La - June 1st marked the beginning of hurricane season and there is keen interest concerning the expert's forecast of just how active this year may become. 2013

 marked the end of one of the slowest Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent memory with mother nature churning out the fewest number of hurricanes since

 1982. There were 13 named storms that formed in the Atlantic BasBasin lastar with only 2 storms reaching hurricane force. Neither was a major hurricane

 and neither made landfall on the U.S. Mainland. The only named storm to reach the United States last year was Tropical Storm Andrea which made landfall

 in June of 2013. At the recent annuaannual Louisianaciation of Broadcasters conference in New Orleans, Dr. Andrew Mercer gave meteorologists some

 insight as to why 2014 could be a below average year. He said "I feel like because we seem to be transitioning into a very strong El Nino. Possibly the

 strongest since 97 or 98 that's going to lead to cooler ocean temperatures in the Atlantic." And those possible cooler the sea surface temperatures lends to a

 less likely environment for tropical system formation. This is reflected in the first run of predictions from theClimatethe Climaten Center and the experts from

 Colorado State University. Dr. Mercer states "I don't think they are being on the conservative side I think they are looking at the climate variability and the

 patterns don't support a lot of hurricane activity this year." The first run forecast numbers fromColorado from Coloradosity project 9 named storms for this

 season with 3 reaching hurricane force. And one major hurricane which is strength of category 3 or higher. The government's Climate Prediction Center

 paints a broader brush outlook of 8 to 13 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes. This particular forecast calls for 1 or 2 major hurricanes. These forecasters

 do not make predictions of where these storms will make landfall. And there is the strong reminder that just because there is a below average forecast for

 2014 there is no reason for people to have a decreased concern about tropical storms and hurricanes. But still a word of caution from Dr. Mercer. "Well I

 would certainly always encourage people to always keep their guard up when it comes to hurricane season. There have been years past when we've had a

 strong El Nino setting in and we still had a major hurricane landfall in the gulf. But we are never totally immune and you should always be aware for this year,

 at least for now, does not seem to be as strong as year's past.The seasonal average is 13 named storms for theAtlanticbasin. Thus the Atlantic basinek of June

 has been inactive in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.
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