This evening's weather balloon data supplied by the Shreveport National Weather Service and plotted skew-t/log-p format by www.rap.ucar.edu shows a relatively unstable environment that can still produce convection. With surface temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 70s at launch time, surface based CAPE or storm energy was large enough for thunderstorms during the early evening. Mid and upper level subsidence would keep most of the storm activity below severe levels though. Also, the weak wind shear would limit storms to just pulse type if they misbehaved.

Tonight, as temperatures fall, the instability decreases and the mid to upper level subsidence will be limiting factors for storms. Showers are still possible with a weather disturbance to our northwest passing by allowing for some vertical lift. Numerous outflow boundaries with just a little moisture convergence could kick off showers until late.

Once temperatures drop into the 70s area wide, the instability should wane and the ArkLaTex will be left with debris clouds plus more that form toward dawn. Low stratus clouds are possible as temperatures fall to the dew points and arrive at saturation.

Convection is possible again for Tuesday afternoon with heat (instability), moisture, outflow boundaries and sea breeze interaction (both for storm initiation).