MIAMI - An area of cloudiness over the Bay of Campeche will gradually develop into a disturbance over the next few days. The storm system is forecasted to strengthen by mid-week as it moves into the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The models for the next three days are pretty consistent keeping the system along the Mexican coast over the Bay Of Campeche, then moving it northward by Thursday and Friday. Once it moves northward, it has a better environment for additional strengthening and could become a tropical depression or tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center thinks there's a 70% chance of that happening over the next five days.
As of Monday, most models are strengthening the system into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Father's Day.
The EURO Model shows a tropical depression moving northward and bringing some heavy rain to the Louisiana coast by the weekend.
At the same time, the GFS Model is showing a slightly stronger system, possibly a tropical storm. The GFS also pushes some of the moisture farther to the east. This would bring the possibly of flooding rains toward New Orleans.